It’s being announced all across the major news sources that Baitullah Mehsud and family were successfully targeted on Wednesday, and apparently the meeting of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan leadership confirms this. While a new Mehsud is bound to take over the TTP leadership, I would like to think what this may mean for the campaign against the TTP, and the TTP itself.
A few armchair conjectures: it’s highly likely that the TTP may splinter. This would be especially probable if the TTP were run like a cult of personality, where the goals of the organization were synonymous with the goals of Baitullah Mehsud. Any differences between all of Baitullah Mehsud’s direct charges would surface, since it’s their chance to turn the TTP into their own personal vision. The deputies might not have agreed with Mehsud’s way of doing things, and his decision to have stayed at a house staked out by the Pakistani [and American] intelligence where Mehsud was known to visit would be autopsied by them. Fervent supporters would clash with pragmatists. Even so, there are chances that the TTP has a life of its own with and the succession would be a mere ripple [but a ripple nonetheless], since their ends seem to lie beyond personalities.
This is what it means for the Pakistani army/intelligence in such a scenario: for a successful follow-up to the assassination, it’s important to spot any rifts – even minor ones – within the group and capitalise on them.
While my armchair doesn’t give me much to investigate on the successor, the most likely suspects are within the Mehsud tribe, just like Baitullah took over from his father. Reports suggest Baitullah’s deputy Wali ur Rehman is being touted as a favourite to take over. Whether the other contenders feel it within themselves to contend is another matter which should be taken seriously as grounds for an offensive strategy by the Pakistani military and intelligence.
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